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End of the Fusion?


jason1973tl
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And exactly whom do you think will be buying all those hybrids?  I can just see Joe the Plumber waiting for his plug-in F-150 to finish charging before he leaves for the day.  EXCEPT for some tree huggers currently driving smaller CUVs, AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.  No way will the big SUV/CUV and pickup buyers want to have ANYTHING to do with hybrids, of any variety.

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How quickly folks forget.  During the '06-'08 time of $4/gallon gas and the early stages of the Great Recession, GM tried to get folks into hybrid large SUVs and large pickups, and got absolutely nowhere.  The SUV crowd started buying sedans again and the pickup folks just stepped down in size.  I know, I was selling them at a GM dealership back then.

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You wouldn’t plug in a Hybrid F150 - you’re thinking of plug in hybrids.   And GMs hybrid pickups were not full hybrids and therefore didn’t offer much of an improvement in fuel economy.

 

They said the same thing about ecoboost engines - truck buyers won’t buy those.   And that was completely wrong.   It will be a niche market - not everybody will want one but it will be an option.   

 

They also will have Ranger and some Diesel power plants.   And I’m getting 21 mpg in my F150 3.5LEB which is exactly the same thing I got in my 2.0 EB Fusion Titanium.

 

The big shock on gas prices has already come and for the most part people have already adjusted.   Big SUV and truck owners bought them knowing gas could go back up.  And someone who wants to downsize is not going to downsize to a Fusion.

 

If the market changes Ford will still have the platform to create new sedans, but it doesn’t look like the market is going to change that way soon.

 

Their target is 8% net profit margin and you can’t get anywhere close to that with cars right now or in the near future.  So they’re putting their dollars into things that support the higher margins.   

 

It is a gamble but the current facts support the business decision.

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Ford and GM always play this game of chasing the latest trend, often too late.  We're about to find out, it looks like, sooner rather than later.  I had no idea, but gas prices are expected to top $4/gallon this summer in California.  They're up $.35/gallon this past week/10 days in my neck of the woods, so it's nowhere near over.

 

Folks, by the boatload, overspent on SUVs and pickups in the '05-'07 time frame, just like the last few years.  They WILL downgrade to a Ranger or Fusion IF the only way to avoid a repo is to trade down.  And then trade back up once the economy recovers.

 

The BIG downside to the Fusion is that its fuel economy is the worst in the class, by far.  All of the competition does much better.  I think weight is the big issue.  I also always turn off the start/stop, so that doesn't help, in my case.

 

It would take YEARS to create new sedans if the market changes.  Focus and Fiesta not an issue since they'll be in production in other parts of the world, but I don't think Ford is planning on a new Mondeo, but not sure.

 

Ford has pissed off enough people just in the last week that some prognosticators are already proclaiming "the beginning of the end for Ford" and "Time to buy a Chevy, Ford fans" and on and on.  Bit extreme, but maybe not all wrong.

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15 minutes ago, NCEcoBoost said:

 

It would take YEARS to create new sedans if the market changes.  Focus and Fiesta not an issue since they'll be in production in other parts of the world, but I don't think Ford is planning on a new Mondeo, but not sure.

 

 

Ford still has plans for the Mondeo in other parts of the world.  It will likely be an extension of the new Focus platfom, but it wouldn't be that hard to bring it back to North America if needed, but I don't see that even at $5/gas.  Things are different now.  Back in 2008 you couldn't get a 20+mpg SUV or a 30mpg F150.  Now you can and there's even more improvements coming with the hybrids.  So I think Ford's covered on the fuel economy game.

 

But you really need to look deeper into Ford's plan.  Ford is betting on "mobility solutions" beyond the concept of individuals purchasing vehicles.  Automated vehicles, ride sharing, city management, all of those business models offer Ford a "recession/fuel price proof" solution to sustained profits.  That's where the money saved from sedans is going.

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2018 Fusion 1.5L T - 27 mpg combined.    2018 Edge 2.0 T - 24 mpg combined.    The 17 mpg crossovers are long gone.   And the new ones will be hybrids so 35-40 mpg is not out of the question.  Even a 3.5LT Expedition gets 20 mpg now.  My F150 gets 21 with the same engine.   And they’re getting hybrids too.

 

The gas price argument holds no water.   They will lose sales overall and they might lose a few utility sales by not having a car in the showroom but the goal is to have a 8% overall profit margin and cars aren’t going to get you there.    Now you might say that it’s better to have a more diverse product mix with lower margin (like Toyota) and personally I would agree with that.   But if the goal is 8% then this is the right way to get there.

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  • 2 weeks later...
13 hours ago, akirby said:

Why?   Are F150 buyers going to suddenly start buying Fusions?

No.  I just meant that this kind of catastrophe can happen at any time, and with their cancelling all sedans, they'd be placing even more importance on the F-150 and other trucks, which means the impact of this kind of thing is much bigger.

 

Also, most families own multiple vehicles.  I know plenty who own a truck and two sedans, or a truck, sedan, and something else..  Ford is slapping a lot of loyal Ford sedan owners in the face by doing this.  It's not just the Fusion, there's also the Focus, which is a pretty popular smaller sedan, too.

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Focus and Fusion sedans are in the $20K - $25k price range and they currently have $4K+ incentives even before this announcement.   With more buyers moving to utilities and the increased competition and price wars on Focus and Fusion class sedans there simply isn't much profit to be had (and for Focus it's probably a net loss).

 

They're killing sedans but they're also adding new vehicles at the same time - Ranger, Bronco, Baby Bronco.  A new Escape and Ecosport.  A new Edge and Explorer.  Focus Active.  Most likely some type of Fusion Active as well.   And every utility will be available as a hybrid.  Things that have higher ATPs and less price competition.   It won't be just F150 and large SUVs by any means.  

Their goal is a 8% margin and you just can't get that on Focus or Fusion sedans.

 

Compact utilities are $4K higher than their sedan counterparts.   Midsized is $13K higher.    Full sized utilities are $28K higher than their sedan counterparts.  That's a huge difference.

 

What is also being overlooked is that they're diverting the capital to non-vehicle initiatives like a platform to manage autonomous vehicle fleets and connected cars, etc. - things that give them much higher profit potential that's not affected directly by changes in the vehicle market.  They're using it to diversify.

 

So while some Fusion or Focus owners may be alienated, most will probably move to a utility.   Even if they lose those buyers they're not losing much profit.    You have to stop looking at sales volumes and look at profit.

 

Remember, when GM went bankrupt nad Ford almost went bankrupt they were #1 in sales.

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Well, I'm one of those people who will never drive an SUV/CUV.  If there's no sporting sedan for me from Ford, I'll just have to go elsewhere.  Regrettable, since I've been with FoMoCo since 1986.  Never thought I'd say this, but the Kia Stinger GT is looking pretty good to me right now.

Edited by drolds1
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Yes but you're buying luxury sedans which aren't affected (yet).   There is plenty of profit potential on the luxury side so I don't see those going away, especially since they can use the same CD6 platform as Explorer/Aviator.

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Hi gang.  As I stated previously, I am not a CUV, SUV, truck kind of person, so I tend to agree with Art on this one. They are excellent vehicles for those who like and need them, I simply do not find CUV's as attractive, comfortable or well handing as cars and have no off-road or hauling needs for an SUV or truck.

 

Having owned nothing but new Ford and Lincoln cars since 1976 (even longer than you Art), I also see Ford returning to some of their past mistakes since Alan Mulally has retired.  The "suits", accountants and bean counters are taking over again (I wear a suit and tie every day too, so I'm being metaphorical, not biased:hysterical:). 

 

The Taurus, Fusion and Focus were fine, class leading cars when they were introduced. Then as often happens, the bean counters get involved and try to cut costs to the bone by squeezing production costs too far and extending product refresh/replacement cycles. Then before we know it, the product line falls behind the competition, sales fall and everyone wonders why. It is exactly what happened to the Fusion and Focus. I also see little advertising for Ford cars. While I personally don't pay attention to advertising when purchasing a new car, many people do. 

 

The European, Japanese and Koren manufacturers can and do make a profit selling cars, so there are no real reasons U.S. manufacturers can't. Taking their bat and ball and going home is not the solution. They simply need to do it right. Everything runs in cycles, and eventually the CUV craze will cool when the next big thing comes along, gas prices shoot up again, or both. Sooner or later, many (not all) CUV's will become the new minivan...the vehicle that soccer moms and grandfathers drive. And yes, Ford eliminated the Windstar and left the minivan market, but  that was simply one vehicle, not multiple vehicle lines from sub-compact to full-sized. B)

 

There will always be a profitable market for cars and CUV's and SUV's, if the product lines are kept up to date properly.  And yes, CUV and SUV mileage is better than in the past. And so is car mileage.  And car mileage will always be better than CUV/SUV mileage. The laws of physics can not be defeated. Other variables being equal, a larger, heavier vehicle will get lower fuel mileage. Cars will always get better mileage than larger vehicles. So when comparing vehicle mileage in discussions, we need to be sure and compare the correct platform classes.  An Escape compares passenger wise to a Focus, not a Fusion. And the Edge and Fusion share the same basic platform and compare passenger wise, so they need to be compared together. And slightly off topic, I also sort of see all of this as the vehicular version of "mission creep". Just how large do our cars (and houses etc) need to get (while we complain that they cost too much), before we realize they cost so much because we keep buying bigger and we actually don't need things to be so damn big.

 

Bottom line for me is I would like to be driving a car, not a CUV or SUV.  And I would prefer that car be a Lincoln or Ford. Ford has a slight history of sometimes making unfortunate and incorrect production and marketing decisions. I feel this decision to eliminate the vast majority of their car lineup may wind up on that ignominious list. Dropping car lines will come back to haunt Ford. For example, unless Lincoln keeps an Ford Fusion Sport and MKZ type car in their lineup (front or rear wheel drive platform), or I decide to revert back in time to another Mustang GT,  I (and Art) could be lost as a customers. And there are more like the two of us (god forbid). :hysterical:

 

Sorry for the long post and good luck to all. :)

Edited by bbf2530
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You're correct about Ford allowing the cars to rot on the vine somewhat, however just look at the brand new Accord and Camry - they've also dropped off dramatically.  So much that Honda is offering big discounts on the brand new Accord - something that never happened in the past.   So it's not just Ford and not just older vehicles.   The entire market is shifting pretty quickly.

 

You're also forgetting that Ford is hybridizing all their retail vehicles so you'll have utilities that get better fuel economy than a Focus or Fusion sedan.   And they can charge a premium for it.  So I don't see this is the same thing Ford did before when they ignored cars - they'll actually have a full lineup of vehicles at different price points with best in class fuel economy.   You just might not see a Focus or Fusion sedan shape.

 

And let me repeat that this isn't so much about Ford not being able to make money on Focus or Fusion - they're just not able to make nearly as much margin as they could with other things.  And keeping them would mean they can't do some of the other things they want to do long term.  It's simply a matter of prioritizing capital investments. 

 

Besides - Fusion isn't going away for another 2-4 years.   Things might change by then.

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Hi Allen.  Please don't incorrectly assume what I am remembering, understanding or reading. ;)

 

I understand all you are saying. And I am definitely stating I don't want or need a hybridized vehicle at this point. And I still see all this as "mission creep" though, so Ford can have a larger profit margin.  Additionally, it's apples to oranges to compare fuel mileage from a hybridized CUV to an ICE car. The correct comparison is hybridized CUV/SUV to hybridized car. A hybridized car will get better fuel mileage than the equivalent platform, hybridized CUV/SUV. It's slightly smaller and lighter thus more efficient.  That's not debatable. 

 

And I'm not forgetting that Ford is hybridizing their entire vehicle line. However, as stated above, you seem to be forgetting that a hybridized Focus and Fusion will get better fuel mileage than the equivalent platformed, hybridized Escape/Edge.  Bigger and heavier is not better for fuel mileage.  

 

And I understood that you didn't say the Focus and Fusion don't make money.  You are saying Ford wants to increase it's profit margin.  However, it doesn't help me sleep at night to know that Ford can charge me "a premium". I understand capitalism and certainly want Ford to be profitable, but I don't want to pay more for a car than I already do for them to do it.

 

I also don't necessarily see it as a bad thing that Honda and Toyota need to offer incentives on their Accord and Camry either.  They are selling ~300,000-400,000 per year each and making a profit. American automakers offer incentives on their cars, CUV, SUV and truck models. So I see it as a good thing that Honda and Toyota need to. And you and I are both old enough to remember, or at least been around, when Honda and Toyota have offered pricing incentives in the past.

 

Anyway, us average mooks don't get to decide what they will produce, only what we will buy. Perhaps I will change my mind in 2-4 years when I look to replace another car.  Or perhaps Ford will change their mind. In the mean time, it's all good-natured fun to hypothesize and hope.

 

All in good fun Allen. :)

Edited by bbf2530
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As usual I don’t disagree with you but I think we’re talking about different things.

 

The reason I mentioned hybrid utilities is a rebuttal to the general notion that Ford would be in trouble if gas goes back to $4/gallon if they don’t have a Focus or Fusion sedan.    A hybrid utility would provide even better fuel economy than a regular Focus or Fusion sedan and it’s what more people want to buy these days.  So Ford will still have options if gas prices go up - they wouldn’t necessarily lose those sales to other brand’s sedans.

 

As for Camcord, they’re no longer selling 300K - 400K like they used to.   Accord only sold 21k last month - that’s less than 250K/yr.   Camry is also way down at 31K/month.   The point is that even brand new fresh sedans are no longer selling like they used to.   RAV4 will soon eclipse Camry as the best selling Toyota.

 

I get the fact that people still love cars and if I was a car fan I’d be pissed too, just like the manual transmission and station wagon fans when people stopped buying those.   But you can’t ignore the market shift across the board.   And Ford could continue selling sedans at a lower profit margin, but I don’t blame them for shifting to more profitable areas.  And don’t forget that part of this is to fund new business opportunities that allow them to diversify their business and not be so dependent on the automotive market and its whims.

 

Look at it this way - if you had 2 stocks in the same industry - one that was giving you a 2% return and another that was giving you a 10% return and both were unlikely to change over the next few years, would you keep the one with 2% return or put that money into the better performer?  

 

Besides, Ford is still going to have Focus and Fusion/Mondeo in Europe so if the market changes they can bring them back.   And if you look at a Focus Active there isn’t much difference between that and a normal Focus hatchback or wagon.

 

Since I tend to always look at these things from a business standpoint, it makes sense to me.   As a consumer who likes sedans it sucks and I get that.   Not every business decision is popular.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

As usual I don’t disagree with you but I think we’re talking about different things.

 

The reason I mentioned hybrid utilities is a rebuttal to the general notion that Ford would be in trouble if gas goes back to $4/gallon if they don’t have a Focus or Fusion sedan.    A hybrid utility would provide even better fuel economy than a regular Focus or Fusion sedan and it’s what more people want to buy these days.  So Ford will still have options if gas prices go up - they wouldn’t necessarily lose those sales to other brand’s sedans.

 

As for Camcord, they’re no longer selling 300K - 400K like they used to.   Accord only sold 21k last month - that’s less than 250K/yr.   Camry is also way down at 31K/month.   The point is that even brand new fresh sedans are no longer selling like they used to.   RAV4 will soon eclipse Camry as the best selling Toyota.

 

I get the fact that people still love cars and if I was a car fan I’d be pissed too, just like the manual transmission and station wagon fans when people stopped buying those.   But you can’t ignore the market shift across the board.   And Ford could continue selling sedans at a lower profit margin, but I don’t blame them for shifting to more profitable areas.  And don’t forget that part of this is to fund new business opportunities that allow them to diversify their business and not be so dependent on the automotive market and its whims.

 

Look at it this way - if you had 2 stocks in the same industry - one that was giving you a 2% return and another that was giving you a 10% return and both were unlikely to change over the next few years, would you keep the one with 2% return or put that money into the better performer?  

 

Besides, Ford is still going to have Focus and Fusion/Mondeo in Europe so if the market changes they can bring them back.   And if you look at a Focus Active there isn’t much difference between that and a normal Focus hatchback or wagon.

 

Since I tend to always look at these things from a business standpoint, it makes sense to me.   As a consumer who likes sedans it sucks and I get that.   Not every business decision is popular.

 

Hi Allen.  Yes, we usually do agree. :)

I understood why you were mentioning the hybrids.  So I hope you understand that I was simply pointing out that we should make apples to apples, equal platform size to platform size comparisons for complete accuracy concerning MPG's. You compared the Escape mpg to the Fusion in earlier posts. As you know, the Escape is a smaller platform. And I know you know the Edge and the Fusion are platform equivalent. Dopn't want others who may not know that to be confused.  Also, while Accord sales are down so far this year, Camry sales are actually up almost 14% over last year and are on pace for the low 300,000 to 350,0000 range. But, we digress. :hysterical:

 

I do understand the business end of the decisions to some degree.  I just think the decisions as to car production are short sighted. Only time will tell. And I also have my worries as to the top of the Ford corporate food chain being held by an individual who made his previous mark leading a furniture company. I had much more faith in Mulally, who headed an aircraft industry/technological giant.

 

So we can certainly agree to disagree while we agree. I'm all for that. :)

 

 

1 hour ago, akirby said:

And there will still be at least one Lincoln sedan on CD6.

 

That is what keeps me going on and getting out of bed each morning! A RWD/AWD, MKZ equivalent! ;)

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Camry sales are only up 5% YTD but point taken.   I do think they’re using heavy incentives to keep sales up though because everybody else is way down.

 

Here is my point on hybrid utilities.   You’re correct that a Fusion hybrid sedan will get slightly better fuel economy than an Edge hybrid.  However, that’s not the question people are going to ask if gas goes to $4/gallon.    They’ve already decided they want a utility so the question is can I get a utility with great fuel economy to offset the higher fuel costs and the answer will be yes.   They won’t even consider a Fusion hybrid because they want a utility - so it doesn’t matter that the Fusion hybrid sedan gets better mpg.   

 

People want utilities more than sedans and having hybrid utilities will insulate Ford from higher gas prices - more so than any other mfr due to the scale that Ford is planning.   They’re even doing a hybrid F150 and mustang.

 

How would you feel about a Fusion wagon or hatchback similar to the Focus Active?   That’s likely to be available because it won’t face the same type of competition and has much higher profit potential.

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1 hour ago, akirby said:

Camry sales are only up 5% YTD but point taken.   I do think they’re using heavy incentives to keep sales up though because everybody else is way down.

 

Here is my point on hybrid utilities.   You’re correct that a Fusion hybrid sedan will get slightly better fuel economy than an Edge hybrid.  However, that’s not the question people are going to ask if gas goes to $4/gallon.    They’ve already decided they want a utility so the question is can I get a utility with great fuel economy to offset the higher fuel costs and the answer will be yes.   They won’t even consider a Fusion hybrid because they want a utility - so it doesn’t matter that the Fusion hybrid sedan gets better mpg.   

 

People want utilities more than sedans and having hybrid utilities will insulate Ford from higher gas prices - more so than any other mfr due to the scale that Ford is planning.   They’re even doing a hybrid F150 and mustang.

 

How would you feel about a Fusion wagon or hatchback similar to the Focus Active?   That’s likely to be available because it won’t face the same type of competition and has much higher profit potential.

 

Hi Allen.  We don't disagree on the fact that hybrid utility vehicles get better fuel economy than their internal combustion engine counterparts. That is a given. And people will ask all types of questions when gas hits $4 plus. Some relevant and some completely out of left field irrelevant (just like on Internet forums). Heck, most people don't even understand that they won't offset the extra cost of many hybrids unless they keep it for many years and have high mileage driving habits. Or that ideal hybrid driving environment is suited more for city driving than highway driving. My point is that I believe Ford is making a tactical and strategic error and that there is a viable and profitable market for both cars and utility vehicles. .

 

Yes, I wouldn't currently buy a CUV/SUV or truck.  But I can see and understand their appeal to some people and am not the type to denigrate them just because I wouldn't buy one. Unlike some people nowadays, my ego is not wrapped up in my car choices, so I can still look at vehicles I would not buy myself and say "Wow, that is a nice looking car/CUV/SUV/truck" etc.. I simply prefer cars to CUV's/SUV's/trucks out of choice and lifestyle. Either way, my wife will still grudgingly sleep with me at night, so it doesn't matter. :hysterical:

 

As far as a Fusion wagon or Focus Active? I think both are very nice vehicles and good ideas. The Mondeo wagon is a very nice looking vehicle.  I would not currently buy one (don't really need the cargo area), but that doesn't mean it's not an attractive purchase for others. And just like a CUV, I would certainly purchase one if I had the need for carrying more stuff in my life (unlikely to be necessary any time soon). I grew up with station wagons (often riding in the rear facing and side facing cargo area seats of Country Squire and Colony Park wagons), and personally I think modern wagons (or "shooting brakes" in Europe) are more attractive than CUV's.  But again, I understand that is only my opinion. What isn't opinion is they are better handling and more efficient than equivalent CUV models. Just like most SUV's originally built for "off road" driving see nothing more "off-road" than a Costco parking lot. But once again, we digress. :hysterical:

 

I want Ford to succeed. Right now, we have a choice of vehicles in the U.S., and I am not in favor of less choice.  Allen, I understand what you are saying,  but disagree with Ford's decision.  I think the decision is short sighted.

 

Only time will tell whether it turns out to be correct. On that we can surely agree. ;)

Edited by bbf2530
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23 hours ago, akirby said:

Focus and Fusion sedans are in the $20K - $25k price range and they currently have $4K+ incentives even before this announcement.   With more buyers moving to utilities and the increased competition and price wars on Focus and Fusion class sedans there simply isn't much profit to be had (and for Focus it's probably a net loss).

 

They're killing sedans but they're also adding new vehicles at the same time - Ranger, Bronco, Baby Bronco.  A new Escape and Ecosport.  A new Edge and Explorer.  Focus Active.  Most likely some type of Fusion Active as well.   And every utility will be available as a hybrid.  Things that have higher ATPs and less price competition.   It won't be just F150 and large SUVs by any means.  

Their goal is a 8% margin and you just can't get that on Focus or Fusion sedans.

 

Compact utilities are $4K higher than their sedan counterparts.   Midsized is $13K higher.    Full sized utilities are $28K higher than their sedan counterparts.  That's a huge difference.

 

What is also being overlooked is that they're diverting the capital to non-vehicle initiatives like a platform to manage autonomous vehicle fleets and connected cars, etc. - things that give them much higher profit potential that's not affected directly by changes in the vehicle market.  They're using it to diversify.

 

So while some Fusion or Focus owners may be alienated, most will probably move to a utility.   Even if they lose those buyers they're not losing much profit.    You have to stop looking at sales volumes and look at profit.

 

Remember, when GM went bankrupt nad Ford almost went bankrupt they were #1 in sales.

 

Nope, no reason for me to buy an SUV, CUV or truck.  My next purchase will likely be an Altima, Camry, or similar vehicle.  I already avoid GM products, and now Ford will likely be off the list too.

 

   I get it - they're looking for more profit, and I can appreciate that, but IMHO, they can still do that and keep at least 1 of these sedans.  With those vehicle lineup changes, it seems they're on the right track.  I don't see why they can't just ADD those and keep the standard Fusion, and maybe limit it to fewer powertrain/trim options.

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I think the decision to kill the new plant in Mexico started a chain reaction.   They can't do all the new stuff and keep making Focus and Fusion in North America, so they chose higher margin opportunities.

 

It's definitely a risk, but they'll still be making Focus and Mondeo in Europe.   And if the utility craze continues and sedans continue to drop we may look back on it and say they were geniuses.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

So, yesterday, Nissan, Honda and Toyota all came out reaffirming their love for sedans - a subtle riff of Ford.  Then, today, Subaru comes out and says the same thing, but this time, it directly says that Ford is being stupid.  Why?  Because many, if not the majority of households with a CUV/SUV, also have at least one sedan as their other vehicle(s).  And Ford is cutting itself out of that market completely.  Foolish, they say.  Internet is on fire about this.  Easily 80% agree with Subaru.

 

What's with this WSJ reporter IMing me about this thread?  Anyone else get it?  I haven't replied.

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Except a lot of Subaru’s cars are actually wagons, not sedans.   Or sports cars.   WRX is their Mustang.   Hardly apples to apples.

And Ford will have those types of vehicles - just not the traditional sedan silhouette.

 

There is some point that compact and midsized sedans might lead to more utility sales.   However Ford seems willing to give up some volume for higher margins (8%).    It is a bit of a gamble but it’s not a bad business strategy overall.

 

The bigger issue here that most journalists either don’t understand or ignore is that they’re not just cutting costs by stopping sedans - they’re using that money and factory resources to put out more new trucks and utilities and to invest in other non-vehicle initiatives that promise a much higher ROI - such as deploying a platform to allow others to manage their autonomous car fleet.   They’re diversifying their investments.

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