Amid Coronavirus, Ford Overall U.S. Sales Decline 12.5 Percent -- Van and Explorer Sales Buck the Trend Posting Gains; Lincoln Retail Sales Up 7 Percent

[Ford Super News Ticker]

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) today reported its first quarter 2020 U.S. sales results.

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[Oracle_Ed]

More vans will definitely be necessary to transport the victims.

[NCEcoBoost]

It took me a few days to see the list of TOP 20 sellers for the first quarter and looky here.  The Fusion, once again, in its EIGHTH model year with minimal changes, is at #20.  This should qualify it as an out-of-the-park home run for Ford.  Whatever knucklehead (I know who they are, Jim and Billy) decided to drop this model should be executed for pure stupidity.  Keep it on the same, great platform, but redesign it.  Wanna bet, due to coronavirus, that it returns for '21, as is?

Edited April 10, 2020 by NCEcoBoost

[bbf2530]

1 hour ago, NCEcoBoost said:

It took me a few days to see the list of TOP 20 sellers for the first quarter and looky here.  The Fusion, once again, in its EIGHTH model year with minimal changes, is at #20.  This should qualify it as an out-of-the-park home run for Ford.  Whatever knucklehead (I know who they are, Jim and Billy) decided to drop this model should be executed for pure stupidity.  Keep it on the same, great platform, but redesign it.  Wanna bet, due to coronavirus, that it returns for '21, as is?

 

Hi NC. I agree with you. However, there will be no 2021 Fusion. Unfortunately, the Fusion (and Lincoln MKZ) have already ceased production as of the end of the 2020 model year.

 

It's a shame Ford and Lincoln let them wither on the vine, then used the declining sales figures as a partial reason for ceasing production of sedans. ?

Edited April 10, 2020 by bbf2530

[akirby]

2 hours ago, NCEcoBoost said:

It took me a few days to see the list of TOP 20 sellers for the first quarter and looky here.  The Fusion, once again, in its EIGHTH model year with minimal changes, is at #20.  This should qualify it as an out-of-the-park home run for Ford.  Whatever knucklehead (I know who they are, Jim and Billy) decided to drop this model should be executed for pure stupidity.  Keep it on the same, great platform, but redesign it.  Wanna bet, due to coronavirus, that it returns for '21, as is?

 

50 minutes ago, bbf2530 said:

It's a shame Ford and Lincoln let them wither on the vine, then used the declining sales figures as a partial reason for ceasing production of sedans. ?

 

It's not a matter of sales.  You can sell 7 million vehicles a year and still go bankrupt (see: GM).   The fact is sedan sales have been steadily declining (even the market leader Camcord) while the market became even more crowded thanks to Kia and Hyundai.   This drove pricing way down to the point Ford was selling mostly SE models with $5K cash on the hood.   There simply isn't much profit in that.   Combine that with other higher priorities such as the new Bronco Sport and Bronco along with several BEVs and hybrid utilities and there simply weren't enough resources to justify keeping it in production.

 

Yes, they messed up when they didn't do a proper refresh for 2017 and that hurt sales even more, but it would not have changed the equation.

 

The good news is they haven't dropped Mondeo in Europe and it seems they're designing a new one based on the new C2 platform (Escape, Corsair, Focus) which is also being used for the new Bronco Sport which will will be built in Hermosillo just like Fusion.   They should have plenty of C2 plant capacity to build a new Focus and/or Fusion once they launch some of the new vehicles, although I would expect it to be more of a wagon style (think Subaru Outback) than a sedan just due to the aforementioned economic realities.  The CD4 platform is dead - Edge and Nautilus will also move to C2 in a couple of years.

[bbf2530]

3 hours ago, akirby said:

 

 

It's not a matter of sales.  You can sell 7 million vehicles a year and still go bankrupt (see: GM).   The fact is sedan sales have been steadily declining (even the market leader Camcord) while the market became even more crowded thanks to Kia and Hyundai.   This drove pricing way down to the point Ford was selling mostly SE models with $5K cash on the hood.   There simply isn't much profit in that.   Combine that with other higher priorities such as the new Bronco Sport and Bronco along with several BEVs and hybrid utilities and there simply weren't enough resources to justify keeping it in production.

 

Yes, they messed up when they didn't do a proper refresh for 2017 and that hurt sales even more, but it would not have changed the equation.

 

The good news is they haven't dropped Mondeo in Europe and it seems they're designing a new one based on the new C2 platform (Escape, Corsair, Focus) which is also being used for the new Bronco Sport which will will be built in Hermosillo just like Fusion.   They should have plenty of C2 plant capacity to build a new Focus and/or Fusion once they launch some of the new vehicles, although I would expect it to be more of a wagon style (think Subaru Outback) than a sedan just due to the aforementioned economic realities.  The CD4 platform is dead - Edge and Nautilus will also move to C2 in a couple of years.

 

Hi Allen. Sometimes you just need to let us suffering sedan aficionados vent. ?

So, to quote myself for clarity: "It's a shame Ford and Lincoln let them wither on the vine, then used the declining sales figures as a partial reason for ceasing production of sedans."

I realize Ford/Lincoln do not base their product design on what I want. But as a lifetime Lincoln/Ford loyalist, I will have a tough decision to make when I am due for my next car.

 

Declining sales were certainly part of the forecasting Ford used in their decision. So yes, it was also a matter of sales. And part of the reason for declining sales is when an automaker allows their models to age without updating. Then there is Fords wish for higher ATP's. So with that will come higher pricing for CUV's/SUV's than the corresponding sized sedans.  But that has bit them in the butt with the new Explorer. They cut too much quality, especially in the interior, to get their higher ATP's. And poor NVH (see below for my first hand experience).

 

Ford also did this in the 80's and 90's. They let the accountants/bean counters take over and make the decisions. The designers and engineers became second tier.  In doing so, they ruined the Taurus in particular and most of their models in general. And it took hiring Alan Mulally away from Boeing to fix that problem, along with many other deeply entrenched problems in Ford's corporate culture. I saw it and lived it back then. And I see the same types of corporate decisions being made again now, just with new corporate-speak terms and names. Instead of "cost cutting", now it is called "increased ATP's". And the problem begins at the top again.

 

Although I stayed out of the discussion over on BON about the Explorer (because I don't like arguing for the sake of arguing, like some over there), I've test driven a new Explorer ST (in February). It was loud, coarse and noticeably rougher riding than I would ever put up with. Interior quality was not good. Same situation when I test drove an Edge ST. Better than the Explorer, but certainly not the ride/handling and quality equal of the "equivalent" sedan when  it came to NVH and interior quality.  And this opinion is from someone who has owned 6 Mustang GT's and drives his 2018 Lincoln MKZ 3.0 AWD with Drivers Package in Sport mode most of the time. Even my wife noticed the lack of perceived quality. And as I have mentioned in the past, she usually only notices something wrong in a car if it goes CLANK and/or BOOM. ?

 

Yes, the Nautilus, Edge et al are much better than the Explorer. However, I do not need a vehicle that high riding etc, and definitely don't need the NVH trade-offs, extra purchase cost, lower fuel mileage (apples to apples) etc.

 

There will be a market for sedans again. And like minivans, the entire SUV/CUV market will cool down eventually. And unfortunately for Ford and the other automakers making the same decisions, I feel it will be sooner and not later.  Heck...Fusion sales were over 300,000 a year in the 2014 and 2015 model years (if memory serves me correctly).

 

But we can't go over the same things every time. That is why it is better to simply let people vent once in a while.

 

All in good spirits Allen! Good luck old buddy old pal.

Edited April 11, 2020 by bbf2530

[ohsix]

5 hours ago, NCEcoBoost said:

It took me a few days to see the list of TOP 20 sellers for the first quarter and looky here.  The Fusion, once again, in its EIGHTH model year with minimal changes, is at #20.  This should qualify it as an out-of-the-park home run for Ford.  Whatever knucklehead (I know who they are, Jim and Billy) decided to drop this model should be executed for pure stupidity.  Keep it on the same, great platform, but redesign it.  Wanna bet, due to coronavirus, that it returns for '21, as is?

Make sure to keep them Knocking!

[ohsix]

Make sure to keep them Knocking!

[NCEcoBoost]

11 hours ago, akirby said:

 

 

It's not a matter of sales.  You can sell 7 million vehicles a year and still go bankrupt (see: GM).   The fact is sedan sales have been steadily declining (even the market leader Camcord) while the market became even more crowded thanks to Kia and Hyundai.   This drove pricing way down to the point Ford was selling mostly SE models with $5K cash on the hood.   There simply isn't much profit in that.   Combine that with other higher priorities such as the new Bronco Sport and Bronco along with several BEVs and hybrid utilities and there simply weren't enough resources to justify keeping it in production.

 

Yes, they messed up when they didn't do a proper refresh for 2017 and that hurt sales even more, but it would not have changed the equation.

 

The good news is they haven't dropped Mondeo in Europe and it seems they're designing a new one based on the new C2 platform (Escape, Corsair, Focus) which is also being used for the new Bronco Sport which will will be built in Hermosillo just like Fusion.   They should have plenty of C2 plant capacity to build a new Focus and/or Fusion once they launch some of the new vehicles, although I would expect it to be more of a wagon style (think Subaru Outback) than a sedan just due to the aforementioned economic realities.  The CD4 platform is dead - Edge and Nautilus will also move to C2 in a couple of years.

Kirby, as always, we appreciate your expert insight.  I apologize, period.    See my recent posts over in BON for more, but I think that Ford would be wise to not make such a snap decision on the Fusion, as is.

[Waldo]

On 4/10/2020 at 2:13 PM, NCEcoBoost said:

It took me a few days to see the list of TOP 20 sellers for the first quarter and looky here.  The Fusion, once again, in its EIGHTH model year with minimal changes, is at #20.  This should qualify it as an out-of-the-park home run for Ford.  Whatever knucklehead (I know who they are, Jim and Billy) decided to drop this model should be executed for pure stupidity.  Keep it on the same, great platform, but redesign it.  Wanna bet, due to coronavirus, that it returns for '21, as is?

 

Ford's not in business to generate huge sales.  An out-of-the-park home run is defined by the profit a vehicle makes, not the number sold.  From that measure, the Fusion is more like grounding into a triple play.  You can say the Fusion sales have declined because Ford didn't invest in it, but the fact is the overall sedan market has declined dramatically.   Why would Ford spend a bunch of money chasing after a small piece of a pie that keeps shrinking?  Fact is the Fusion has been losing money for a long time, so Ford would have made MORE profit in the quarter if the Fusion had been #25 instead of #20.

[akirby]

Titanium buyers seemed to shift to other vehicle (crossovers most likely) which left Ford trying to sell $25K Fusion SE models with $5K cash on the hood.  Not hard to see that’s a money losing formula.  
 

Some don’t understand net profit and think that every sale is profit.  If I own a pizza food truck and sell 1000 pizzas a month for $10 with a food cost of $3 then I made $7K gross profit.  But after I pay $5k labor for me and a helper plus $1500 truck/oven payment plus $1K for gas, insurance and maintenance - I just lost $500.   Now imagine my competitor undercuts my prices so I’m forced to sell them for $8 but my costs haven’t changed.

 

The formula to make money is to use a highly amortized platform like C2 (Escape, Bronco Sport, Corsair, new Edge and Nautilus, Transit connect, global Focus plus a couple of other new vehicles) as opposed to cd4 which was expensive and only used for a Fusion and Edge and their Lincoln counterparts.  Only produce what you can sell without big discounts and try to create products that don’t have commodity competition like the regular midsized family sedan market.   And you need to keep plants fully utilized which is why C2 platform sharing is important - allows you to put 2 or 3 vehicles in the same plant with 3 full shifts.

 

The frustrating thing with Ford is they constantly change directions and haven’t been able to build momentum.  Some of that is due to unforeseen market changes but a lot is just not following through or not picking the best strategy.  Look at how many engines and transmissions Ford has developed in the last decade compared to Toyota.  Or how many truly new platforms.  They just make tweaks here and there and change appearance and it works.  Not as exciting but a successful model for sure.  Ford needs to get to somewhere in between.